WHO: University of Kentucky vs. University of Miami
WHEN: Lexington, KY -- November 28, 2023
SCORE: Kentucky 95-73
An early showdown between 2 top-10 teams, the SEC/ACC showdown brought Kentucky and Miami to a head. What drew me to this game though were 3 particular prospects: Woogla Poplar of Miami, and Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham of Kentucky. All 3 of these players drew raving reviews in their first games of the season, and this game was the perfect competitive environment to gather an initial impression.
Rob Dillingham
12 points (5-12 shooting, 2-2 from 3), 9 assists (0 turnovers), 5 rebounds, 2 steals, 4 fouls
Offense: Rob Dillingham is an impeccable live-dribble creator, working the ball on a string and dissecting the defense as a scorer or playmaker. His shot-making has been heralded since his days at the Overtime Elite, and in this game particular, he showcased nice stop-and-pop ability from distance and the mid-range. The most intriguing takeaway was his playmaking, as he finished with 9 assists and 0 turnovers. He orchestrated the offense quite well as a co-pilot with Reed Sheppard, and while some of his assists came with the flow of the offense, his reads were exceptional -- finding open rollers and cutters with clear pathways to the basket. His finishing was a mixed bag, but his footwork and finesse shined on successful drivers, while his size was a hindrance in others.
Defense: Dillingham caught me by surprise defensively. He's not a lockdown defender by any stretch, but he may be far from a liability there as well. His screen navigation was sound -- maybe veered too far under on high ball screens, but ultimately recovered on ball-handlers. He has great timing and hands on deflections, and he sought the 50/50 balls -- seeing him dive on the floor for a loose ball piqued my interest. He may enter less-than-ideal circumstances with more exposure, but he passed his first big test against a good college offense.
What I'm monitoring going forward: How he progresses in an on-ball role. If DJ Wagner is missing extended time due to an injury suffered in this game, Dillingham seems like the natural on-ball player to lead the Kentucky offense. Even as a freshman, he's a dynamic presence with the ball on his hand, adding a layer of unpredictability with his live-dribble creation. Showing he's capable of leading a P5 offense this year, and excelling as a playmaker for himself and others, will change his draft and early career projections. His envisioned role could shift from a small combo guard that serves as a bucket-getter, to a potential lead guard -- or at the very least a co-pilot next to a big playmaker.
Woogla Poplar
19 points (7-13 shooting, 0-2 from 3, 5-8 from the free throw line), 8 rebounds, 1 assist (1 turnover), 2 steals, 2 fouls
Offense: Poplar's atheticism immediately jumps off the page. Though his handle isn't exactly air-tight, he navigates to his spots well and has excellent elevation and balance on his jumpers -- evident in the mid-range. He attacked the paint well to draw contact and get to the free throw line. His second jump is crazy, as there was a specific sequence where he rebounded his own missed layup for a putback. His skillset seems catered to this go-to responsibility for this Miami team.
Defense: Poplar was thrusted in off-ball defense responsibilities most often. In these scenarios, he could jump passing lanes and blow up handoff actions to generate turnovers.
What I'm monitoring going forward: The trade-off between his offense and defense. Poplar will shoulder a ton of creation responsibilities with Miami, but I hope it doesn't come at the expense of highlighting his defensive potential. He has the physical tools to be a dynamic defender both on or off-ball. Granted, you won't see a ton of defensive flashes when your team surrenders 95 points in 40 minutes. So his defensive upside will be one to monitor throughout the year.
Reed Sheppard
21 points (8-13 shooting, 5-9 from 3), 5 rebounds, 4 assists (1 turnover), 3 steals, 1 block, 2 fouls
Offense: Sheppard is at the top of his class as a pure shooting prospect. He's tremendous at shooting off movement -- whether it's through relocation, off curls, or off handoff's. He possesses great balance on drives for controlled finishes inside the arc. He shared playmaking responsibilities with Dillingham, and his passing shines as a primary or side-action initiator. He's a smart playmaker that'll make the proper swing around the perimeter, or the skip pass over to the weakside corner.
Defense: Sheppard came into this game as an interesting stocks guy -- 3.2 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. Though I have some concerns about his point-of-attack defense, his event creation can offset. His instincts are sharp with his hands for deflections, but his help defense is excellent -- swiping from players around the post and dunker's spot. Even despite some shaky on-ball movements, he's a good screen navigation capable of recovering on ball-handlers to force reversals.
What I'm monitoring going forward: Will his physical limitations limit his upside, or his event creation too good? Sheppard doesn't possess the tools as an elite defender -- 6'3" and 187 pounds, with an unknown wingspan. His lateral quickness isn't eye-popping or anything. So it begs the question if there are matchups that expose it? It may not, because his nose for the ball is exceptional. If his defensive excellence emerges, along with his playmaking and shooting, he's a guard that ultimately makes an impact on winning.
Justin Edwards
11 points (5-7 shooting, 0-1 from 3, 1-3 from the free throw line), 3 rebounds, 0 assists (0 turnovers), 2 steals, 3 fouls
Offense: Edwards didn't try to do too much here, and his simplicity allowed him to have an imapct on this game. He hustled down the floor to help ignite transition offense, and had a specific sequence where he crashed from the corner for a putback. As a creator, he operated more as a straight-line driver on his way to the bucket, and didn't really go right, but still finished efficiently at the bucket
Defense: Edwards' hustle stood out. He created defensive events for transition offense, both in passing lanes and at the point of attack. He has the physical tools to be a solid defensive forward.
What I'm monitoring going forward: Is he a play creator or a play finisher? Edwards started the cycle as a potential top pick and has quickly seen his stock fall out of that range. While he was efficient, his creation was rather limited -- going the same direction and same hand, not shooting pull-up jumpers, and not creating looks for his teammates. His skillset seems trailored to be a "play finisher" -- which, I need to clarify, is still a great path to go towards and helps for NBA scalability. However, if he's not the big creating wing teams covet, it may limit his draft stock. On the other hand, thriving in the secondary things (finishing, catch-and-shoot jumpers, and defense) will benefit his NBA trajectory as a coveted wing for quite some time -- regardless of where he's picked.
Other quick hits
DJ Wagner's time was limited due to injury. Very quickly, he showcased his ability to navigate downhill in tight spaces. His block into transition offense was a riveting two-way sequence as well. Hope this is a minor setback, so he can be back on the floor for Kentucky.
Antonio Reeves seems like a great veteran complement next to the young Kentucky guards. He's capable of handling scoring responsibilities -- attacking closeouts to work the in-between or get into the paint, and he's also a knockdown shooter. He also possesses great size on the wing as a perimeter defender as well.
Tre Mitchell operated as Kentucky's center in Aaron Bradshaw's absence. His playmaking stood out as a connector out of Delay actions, as he dished out 7 assists -- though his 3 turnovers showed how he might have forced the issue. He bit too much on pump fakes inside, but also had some good blocks. His role transformation in Bradshaw's return will be fascinating, but he's a good veteran big man to piece things together.
It was a quiet game for Matthew Cleveland, though his emphatic block immediately popped off the page. His role as a 3-and-D wing next to Woogla Poplar will be one to monitor. Nonetheless, he has intriguing defensive tools as a 6'7" wing.
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