Original Date: 2023-01-27
The Memphis Grizzlies are going to be without Steven Adams for 3-5 weeks. It’s going to be a tough time for this team, as he’s the glue for the Grizzlies with his offensive rebounding and screening.
This is not a great omen, and they’re not totally screwed. They have their 3 best players in Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane — and in lineups with those 3 without Adams, the Grizzlies have a +22.3 net rating in 80 total possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
In fact, this is an opportunity for the Grizzlies to explore the future, particularly with the idea of Jaren Jackson Jr. becoming a full-time starting center.
The advantages poses at the 4 are quite fascinating. He’s a brilliant rim protector that gets the benefit of roaming and swatting shots off help defense, and it could help him cut down his fouling. He also has the mobility to defend perimeter-oriented 4’s. He gives the Grizzlies two 7-footers for defenses to try to score on them — spoiler alert: it’s tough.
All these advantages are why the Grizzles keep him as the starting 4 with a lighter workload at the 4; it’s been a 60/40 split the past two seasons. Even then, the impact is still there when he transitions to the 5.
In addition, last year, Jackson averaged 20 points, 9 rebounds, 4.8 blocks, and 2 steals on 46.3/33.3/82.8 shooting splits in the only multi-game stretch where Jackson started at the 5 without Adams active. The Grizzlies won all 4 of those games. This season, prior to Wednesday’s Warriors game, Jackson ran the 5 in 2 games:
Detroit: 22 points, 7-13 shooting (2-4 from 3) and 6-7 from the line, 3 rebounds (ok, meh)
Atlanta: 15 points, 6-11 shooting (1-4 from 3) and 2-2 from the line, 8 blocks, 7 rebounds in less than 24 minutes (ok, wow)
The Grizzlies won those games too.
So technically, the Grizzlies are better defensively with Jackson as the 5. They’ve won in this small sample. Why not explore it in higher dosages?
The Grizzlies have two frontcourt partners for him to experiment this with.
Brandon Clarke is the (correct) starting option thus far. He’s had the most time with Jaren Jackson, and the team rules when they share the floor (+12 net rating this year in 687 possessions). He fits the Adams’ role. Though he doesn't set powerful screens, he’s an explosive, efficient roller — scoring 1.48 PPP as the pick-and-roll man, 90th percentile per Synergy. Adams fortifies the paint more on both ends, but his offensive efficiency and his defensive switch-ability have made him valuable for the Grizzlies in his tenure here. He’s also great with both Jackson and Morant:
Then there’s Santi Aldama — the frontcourt partner who broke out into the rotation with Kyle Anderson’s departure and Jaren Jackson’s injury. The people need Aldama and Jackson minutes. It’s been a minuscule sample size (21 possessions), and the results are enticing (+51.3 NET rating, 128.6 offensive rating, 77.3 defensive rating — per Cleaning the Glass). Jackson and Aldama also generate a sweet 5-out advantage with their perimeter shooting and skill. From beyond the arc, Jackson is shooting 38.5% on 4.1 attempts per game, and Aldama is at 38.2 on 3.5 tries per game.
Among those that played 500 minutes in a season, Jackson and Aldama are the first duo of players 6’11” or taller to shoot at least 38% from 3 on 3 attempts per game since Dirk Nowitzki and Raef LaFrentz in the 2001-02 season — Kelly Olynyk and Lauri Markkanen are also in this category this season.
The Grizzlies’ wing shooting, aside from Desmond Bane, is down bad right now. Ja Morant — and, to a lesser extent, Tyus Jones — operate at their best with spacing. Why not try it out for more than a small chunk of the game?
I’m not suggesting to start Aldama. Clarke best fits the job here, and Aldama can provide perimeter shooting and scoring firepower off the bench. However, he could give the Grizzlies a look at a possible future with Jaren Jackson Jr. at the 5. At just 22 years old, and with 2 years left on his rookie contract, the idea of him starting next to Jackson long-term has to be out there. Why not build an early sample with some Aldama/Jackson staggered lineups right now?
Regardless, the Grizzlies will have to navigate the crushing injury of Steven Adams for roughly a month. It’s hard to replicate what he does, and they’ll need to do so in the aggregate — rebounding by committee, generating turnovers for transition offense, and creating clean looks for first scoring chances without a boatload of pick-and-roll actions. It’s possible to do just that.
In the meantime, this is a chance to look into the future of Jaren Jackson Jr. At the 5, the Grizzlies will test some fits alongside Trip. Will a possible long-term solution be Brandon Clarke or Santi Aldama? If they’re looking more at archetype, will it be the paint-oriented lob threat or another floor spacer? Perhaps, it’s a player of Adams’ mold — a big man that handles a bulk of the bruising dirty work to alleviate Jackson from foul trouble.
Throughout the next month, as they battle the bad vibes of Adams’ injury along with a four-game losing streak, we’re about to learn a lot about the Grizzlies’ frontcourt trio of Jaren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke, and Santi Aldama — and how they want to structure the long-term frontcourt fit next to their cornerstone big man.
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